Veles Weekly Report Archive
January 20th 2022

Drought conditions have improved in California but all of California is still in some form of drought.

The generous snowpack is not enough.

Very dry week last week and this looks to persist even though dry spells in winters are not unusual.

 

NQH2O price moved up $1.48 or 0.21% to $707.87.

Price is still above our bearish target of $703.00.

Above the 5 day moving average but below the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 100 day and 120 day.

Weighted average of price indicators is pointing downwards.

 

US plans $50bn wildfire fight.

How long can Arizona rely on underground water?

Murrumbidgee $126bm project approved in water efficiency program in Australia.

Mismanagement causing water shortage and devastating floods in Iran.

China milking India of millions of dollars in exchange for hydrological data.

January 13th 2022

 

NQH2O price is $706.39 down $27.51 or down 3.75%.

Futures trading volume has jumped.

Open interest at a record level.

Near futures at a discount to the index.

Market levels are below all the moving averages.

River flows and reservoir levels still low.

 

CA state is flush with cash which should be good news for water infrastructure.

Arizona to invest $1bn into desalination.

Phoenix voluntarily forgoes some Colorado River water.

 

No there will not be a water war!!

 

Brunei deploys rugged smart water meters.

Satellites can improve flood preparation.

Upholding Australia’s water supply chain.

India and Nepal partner on hydropower.

 

Brazil hydro dams back at 2016 highs.

January 6th 2022

NQH2O price up $0.07 or 0.01% to $733.90.

Exceptional drought conditions (D4) have improved by 22.27% (from 23.11% to 0.84%). This is a big move in one week.

Extreme drought conditions (D3) have improved 46.51%( from 79.44% to 32.93%). This is also a big move in one week.

100% of CA still in moderate drought conditions or D1.

Below both 5 and 10 day (first time in 5 weeks) moving averages. So potentially bearish.

Above the 20 day moving average, below the 30 day moving average, so mixed.

Below both the 100 and 120 day moving average. Potentially bearish.

Near term January futures are stable whereas  longer term June futures adjusting downward.

Futures volatility is higher than index volatility.

Good snow in the Sierras.

New surface water rights sought for Snake river Plain aquifer recharge.

World Bank to help Karnataka in India to take up drinking water project in 3 cities.

Water innovation saves 23mcm of ground water in Jordan.

Ukraine’s water wars.

China’s water under stress.

December 30th 2021

 

NQH2O price $733.83 up $1.38 or 0.19%.

January Futures settle around spot.

Futures volatility still at premium to index volatility indicating potential prices moves to come.

BUT for the first time in 4 weeks the NQH2O price is BELOW the 5 day moving average.

Mixed signals abound as the NQH2O price still above the 10 day, 20 day and 30 day moving averages but below the 100 and 120 long term moving averages.

The stochastic indicator has also turned down.

Technical analysis starting to reflect the fundamental conditions.

Central Valley precipitation 166.81% above the average.

California awards $53m for drought relief.

Bill introduced to allow Colorado River Indian Tribes to lease some water rights.

New report reveals gaps in Indian Groundwater Management.

 

Water crisis hits Dharamsala in India due to reduced glacial water flow.

December 23rd 2021

NQH2O at $732.45 up $4.01 or 0.55%.

Futures at premium to index for first time since Sept 2021.

Futures volatility remains at a premium to index volatility.

Futures above short and medium term moving averages but below the 100 and 120 day moving averages.

Sudden change of weather gives CA wettest start in the Water Year for 40 years .

Average snow pack has gone from 18% to 98% in 2 weeks .

Aquifer levels still dropping in a race to the bottom.

Reservoirs are still dryer than average.

 

Willis Towers Watson PLC designs a parametric cover underwritten by Munich Re for debt restructuring in Belize.

First Nations water rights decreasing in Australia.

Age old harvesting tanks called havelis facilitate groundwater recharge in India.

December 16th 2021

NQH2O price up $0.17 or 0.02%.

Futures above 5 and 10 day moving averages, plus for the first time since August above the  10 and 20 day moving averages.

Still below the 100 and 120 day moving averages.

Double whammy of an atmospheric river and cold front to hit California this week.

 

Arroyo Grande regional recycled water cost Phase 1 $2400 per acre foot, Phase 2 $1800 per acre foot.

Metropolitan buys underground stored water from San Diego.

 

Iran water crisis worsens.

Murray Darling Basin debates flood water harvesting.

Pakistan population outgrowing water supply.

Glacier loss pushing India’s mountain region towards water insecurity.

Egypt has dug 75 wells and constructed 7 dams in Uganda.

December 9th 2021

The State Water Project said participants to expect zero percent allocations of water in 2022. First time ever!

NQH2O price at $728.27 down $0.03 or 0.004% basically unchanged.

NQH2O futures have jumped circa $30, above 5 and 10 day moving averages. First time above the 10 day moving average since August 2021.

The seasonal downtrend may be over.

All eyes are on 2022 water supplies which look bleak.

BUT it is raining today in the Central Valley and will rain again later in the week.

 

9 shutters opened on Mulleperiyar Dam at night in India causing downstream communities to be inundated.

New water sharing rules in Hunter Valley concerns farmers.

Bushfire affected community in Blue Mountains ask for water storage.

December 2nd 2021

NQH2O index at $728.30 up $0.30 or 0.04%.

December futures discount to spot is narrowing, expect this narrowing to continue. Currently around $30.

June 22 futures bid at $910 ie a premium of $182.

State Department of Ecology is offering money for local Governments to buy water rights to create ‘water banks’.

Water funds are getting popular globally.

Turkeys groundwater is shrinking.

Groundwater wells in India showing levels declining by up to 2 metres near certain cities.

November 25th 2021

Water Price is down again in CA but the downward rate is decreasing showing signs of bottoming out.

NQH2O at $728 down $5.42 or 0.74%.

Discount of $40-$60 in December futures to the index over last week.

Futures price above 5 day moving average but below all other longer term moving averages.

Premium of $172 to June futures.

Futures volatility has increased versus the index.

Aquifers are not forever.

Google and water rights in Oregon city.

Israel and Jordan partner on water and energy deal.

Saudi National Water company signs 2 contracts worth $154m.

Protests over water shortages in Iran.

November 18th 2021

NQH2O down $18.68 or 2.48%.

NQH2O index down 21% from its high.

Futures down nearly 30% from their high.

December futures at $70 discount to the index.

Rare cross over in daily volatilities where the index volatility is higher than the futures.

Futures break the bearish target of $703, but index still above it. Is this a false break or more of the same?

 

5 Gallons in a 10 Gallon Hat: Groundwater Sustainability in Texas.

China reveals regulation on groundwater.

UK regulator OFWAT fines water companies £67m.

November 11th 2021

NQH2O price down $6.83 to $752.10 or 0.90%.

Futures down 23.8% from their high on May 18th.

NQH2O index down 19.66% from high on August 25th.

Futures above the 5 day moving average for first time in 6 weeks.

NASA satellites to give better groundwater usage picture in Arizona.

$1bn of Infrastructure Bill to be allocated to water storage.

Delhi water supplies to be hit in various areas today.

South African court rules water rights may be transferred.

November 28th 2021


NQH2O is down a further $26.26 or 3.34% which totals down 17.82% from its high 10 weeks ago.

Futures sitting at a $30 discount to the index.

Drought is not broken YET!

Near term futures and index volatility converging indicating potential price stabilization.

Over 23million AF of precipitation fell in Northern CA region in recent deluge.

Water is next NET-ZERO target.

Water stress drives investors to address supply shortage.

What India’s new water policy seeks to deliver.

 


October 28th 2021

NQH2O down $5.46 or 0.69%.

November Futures at a $35 discount to the index.

Volatility rates are increasing slightly versus the index.

Dry soil absorbs large portion of the rainfall.

Lake Oroville level increases by 16 inches.

Southern CA and Arizona collaborate on water recycling concept.

Iraqi minister proposes taking Iran to The Hague over water.

Access to climate finance discussed for Fiji and Cook Islands.

Indian farmers to get 90% finance on drip irrigation.

October 21st 2021

 

Frontal system from NW Pacific bringing precipitation to the region.

NQH2O is down a further $22.95 or 2.82%.

Near month futures at a discount to the index.

Futures volatility at a premium to the index volatility.

Facebooks water positive goal.

Flooding could affect municipal debt.

 

Iraq to reduce winter crop area by 50% due to water shortage.

October 13th 2021

NQH2O down $122 or 13% from its high of $936.22 six weeks ago.

Futures volatility at premium to index.

Precipitation has reached Southern California.

New protection for Californian aquifers.

No short term answers for water and drought shortages.

Portugal has low exposure to ecological shock, Mozambique and Angola have high exposure.

 

Climate refugee crisis beckons in India.

October 6th 2021

NQH2O futures still trading at a discount to the index.

CA to get $238m from Congress, including $205m for storage projects and $12m for 4 desalination plants.

Groundwater markets may facilitate solution to Western US water problems.

NOAA says drought will persist. Hence probabilities are for a 0% allocation for this coming water year.

Four temporary power units supporting CA grid due to lack of hydropower.

140% of average rainfall needed to have a drought recovery.

Underground water storage growing in importance.

Walton Family pushing for a market based solution to the Colorado River crisis.

This was a record Monsoon year is SW US.

What US and Iran can learn from each other in water.

Climate catastrophe is a huge investment opportunity.

Europe power crisis moves Northward as water shortage persists.

Delivering Investable Water Solutions in Developing countries.

September 30th 2021

 

NQH20 price still easing back.

New CA rainy season theory being put forward.

CA authorises $5.2bn for water quality and drought relief.

LA to increase recycling of water.

CA may get more cuts from Colorado River.

Samsung seeking water for plant in Taylor.

Arizona exploring the importing of water.

Queensland’s decision to lower Paradise Dam wall under fire.

Pepsi to replenish groundwater in Pakistan.

 

Belize Blue Bond tender approaches first deadline.

September 23rd 2021

NQH2O price down $0.97 or 0.11% to $871.96.

Short term futures volatility higher than index volatility as market seeks new price trend.

Satellite imagery showing retraction of Monsoonal effect plus potential build up of frontal activity from NW Pacific.

Models showing potential for more precipitation this oncoming winter than previous winter.

California water agencies resolve Colorado River water dispute.

Marin County competing with Saudi Prince for 3 desalination plants.

Water markets and water trading can help bring CA groundwater into balance.

Water transfers helped farmers survive this year, now all eyes on next year.

Antelope Valley studies water recharge project options.

Does Big Oil have the solution to the West’s water problem?

Farmers restore native grasslands as groundwater disappears.

Turkey’s Mumcular Dam recedes to worrying levels.

Climate change ETFs become controversial.

Fresh VC thinking needed for water.

September 16th 2021

NQH2O was down $41.04 or 4.49% to $873.

Technicals are showing a price reversal in Californian water.

Near month futures offered at a discount to the index.

The futures volatility is lower than the index volatility.

Satellite picture shows frontal conditions moving towards N California from the NW Pacific.

Topsoil still very dry in North Western US.

Here is what is in the one Trillion dollar Infrastructure for Western Water.

Google sets new water goals.

Zero mass water. Why all the hate?

Water crisis could lead to conflict in Middle East.

Johannesburg can no longer rely on its water supply.

Chile seeks to guarantee water rights.

September 9th 2021

NQH2O price down $4.48 or 0.49% to $913.97. Up 82% YTD.

Near Month futures at discount to index for first time since March.

Cyclone of Mexican coast may bring precipitation to CA.

Desalination may increase household water bills.

El Paso County to use ‘Endless Water Loop’ to fight future water shortages.

Reno using ‘smart’ irrigation scheduling.

Flagstaff AZ had 3rd wettest Monsoon rainfall on record.

Blue Bonds need new standards.

Belize moves to restructure its bonds, including marine assets.

Dispute over Krishna water.

Investment is enhancing water security in Western Australia.

September 2nd 2021

NQH2O taking a breather, down $17.77 or 1.90% to $918.45. Up 83.75% Year To Date.

Time to talk about managing Water Risk.

Establishing a desalination plant jointly operated by US and Mexico could help bolster resilience in Colorado River Basin.

Scientists to use radar, balloons and cameras to collect water data in SW by monitoring Colorado snow areas.

Arizona stored water to help shortages. What happens when we start using it?

 

Digital Tech to help African Island States cope with climate change.

August 26th 2021
NQH2O new record high of $936.22. Up 87.31% Year to Date. Farmers face $10000.00 a day fines if they pull water from rivers in CA. Risk of Sacramento- San Joachim Delta becoming too salty. Almond farmers may have to let trees die. Capture of storm water runoff to become a new important source of water. Derivative trading in water can help US manage drought. Benefits of water futures trading explained. PERC calls for expanded use of water markets. A system based approach to water is a necessary condition to approach water climate related risks seen in US, Mid East and Brazil.
August 19th 2021
NQH2O up $23.14 or 2.57%. September Futures are new front month and trading at $8.46 premium. One week futures volatility below index volatility indicating price consolidation. Is Water Risk being priced? Water shortage declared in Colorado River for first time. Impact Finance in water is about to get big. Discussing Green versus Grey infrastructure. Pumping groundwater not a long term solution to drought. Facebook unveils Water Projects to support $800m Mesa data centre near Phoenix. Productivity Commission says reporting of foreign ownership in Australian water is sufficient. $90m of new water projects in Southern Australia. Singapore uses advanced system to turn sewerage into drinking water.
August 12th 2021

NQH2O up $8.07 or 09.% to $900.40 up 80.14% YTD.

Futures have been trading at a $10-$24 premium to the index.

One week Futures volatility has reversed and is now higher than the index volatility, indicating potentially more volatility to come.

December Futures offer negative $96 to August Futures bid implying significant seasonality in the price.

Monsoon activity has being bringing relief to the SW, with Tucson AZ receiving more rain in 5 days in July than in whole of 2020.

Westland Water District and Environmental Groups align in looming fight over water rights.

Food prices increase due to drought.

Can CA handle another year of drought?

World Bank signs $250m project to add resilience to India’s existing dams.

Blue Bonds a new form of finance.

August 5th 2021

NQH2O up 78.53% year to date.

One week futures volatility reverses to a discount to the index indicating possible price consolidation.

NQH2O index at new all-time high.

Exceptional drought conditions increased by 13.07%, mostly in the Central Valley.

Washington topsoil moisture 99% short.

 

Loans and grants being used for drinking water and wastewater projects.

July 29th 2021

NQH2O price unchanged at $842.38 Near month futures at a premium of $28-$31 to index. August futures bid price $57 higher than the December futures offer price. Near term futures and index volatilities converge further indicating price stability. Water released from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming and Utah to boost Lake Powell for purpose of guarding hydropower. Thousands of Central Valley farmers may lose access to surface water. 154 primary intrastate reservoirs gain 1.7m Acre Feet of seasonal melt, 20% of average. More companies citing water scarcity as a financial risk in regulatory filings. Most companies underestimate their water consumption cost by 3-5 times the true cost. Companies facing most water risk are food, beverage, tobacco and consumer goods. Tucson AZ water management is a model for other cities. Saudi Arabia suspends privatisation of Desalination and Power plant. Global water crisis unleashing Tsunami of Watertech.

July 22nd 2021

NQH2O up $21.52 or 2.62% to $842.38. Various signals of price stabilisation. Near term volatilities converging between index and futures providing more indications of
price levelling. 
WaterBanks are
a tool for climate resilience. 
La Nina could dash hopes of rain this winter. Monsoon promises much needed rain in short term in parched West. Farmers and ranchers in Utah have cut water use by 70-75%. Historical data no longer a reliable guide to future conditions. 

July 15th 2021

NQH2O futures premium reduced from $20 to $6. CA Diamond Valley lake which is an emergency storage reservoir is 80% full. Drought caused a 13% reduction in Almond production. Massive water recycling proposal could help relieve drought conditions.

 

July 8th 2021

NQH20 up $2.21 or 0.26%. Water Risk likely to be 3 times Carbon Risk.

July 1st 2021

NQH2O price eases by $18.61 to $839/AF. Biden Infrastructure Bill to help water storage and drought..

June 24th 2021

85,44% of CA in Extreme Drought. NQH2O down $0.94 to $857.61. July futures at $60 premium.

June 17th 2021

Western US driest in 1200 years. December future offer $128 below July Future bid.

June 10th 2021

Light rain possible in N CA. Lake Mead water conservation ICS project working. NQH2O Sep Futures offer $35 below the July bid price.

June 3rd 2021

The First Water Price Curve is Developing. NQH2O down $10.29 to$856.71. Water Allocations cut from 5% to zero.

May 27th 2021

Central Sierra Mountain snow has all melted. SW US soil driest since 1895. Wildfire Alert. NQH2O at $867.

May 20th 2021

NQH2O takes an $8.00 downward breather this week to $869.36 but still on course to $1070. Both Tulare and North Sierra Precip Indexes 2nd driest on record

May 13th 2021

Extreme drought conditions now encompass 73.31% of CA. NQH2O hits new all time high at $877.36

May 6th 2021

NQH2O up a further $8.53 to a new high of $877.05. Futures premium to index decreased by $40. Central Valley April Rainfall at 17% of average

April 29th 2021

NQH2O at New All Time High of $868.7 up73.8% Year to Date . Technical analysis indicating next level could be $1070 

April 22nd 2021

CA Governor declares drought emergency in 2counties, NQH2O up $40 to $831.97, light rain in week ahead

April 15th 2021

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) at 37.33%of 20 year average

April 8th 2021

H2O Futures trade at a high $820 for the week. Sierra Snowpack well below average. Reservoir storage also worryingly low.

April 1st 2021

NQH2O up 12.57% to $772.10. DWR snow survey is disappointing. 

March 25th 2021

DWR Issues Allocation Reduction for the State Water Project. NQH2O up 29.52%

March 18th 2021

The March Futures Contract has settled at $529.58. With Aprils contract now the front month, will we see if the influence of summer irrigation deals effect NQH2O and the Futures.

March 11th 2021

California see’s some much needed precipitation. How will this effect drought conditions in the state.

March 4th 2021

Lake Oroville at only 38% capacity. 2021 looks to be the 3rd warmest on record.